An Attempt to Determine the Best Goaltending Series in Recent History
By Trey Elder Jul 16, 2024
It’s hard to argue that any one player has more of an individual impact on a team’s performance than the goalie, especially during the playoffs. Connor McDavid can put up 42 points in a single postseason and the Oilers can still lose because Stuart Skinner allows a soft goal in Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Final. A great goalie can propel a team to a deep playoff run like Connor Hellebuyck in 2018, or sink a team’s chances before they even get started like Connor Hellebuyck in 2024. Goaltending is both extremely important and wildly volatile, so I thought it’d be a fun exercise to try and determine which playoff series from recent postseason history (since the 2008 playoffs) featured the best overall goaltending performance, taking into account both teams.
To do this, we'll use a few different criteria to evaluate each series, helping us narrow down our search until we're left with a winner. We'll start with the simplest goaltending metric possible, save percentage, as I think it goes without saying that in order for a series to be considered for this conversation, it needs to feature an elite combined save percentage. To calculate this, we combine every shot both goalies faced during the course of play, excluding shots taken at an empty net. Here are the top twenty series ranked in order of combined save percentage.
Top 20 Playoff Series by Combined Save Percentage Since 2008
| Rank | Series | Playoff Year | Save Pct. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kings vs. Golden Knights | 2018 | 0.962 |
| 2 | Panthers vs. Lightning | 2022 | 0.953 |
| 3 | Flames vs. Stars | 2022 | 0.952 |
| 4 | Hurricanes vs. Panthers | 2023 | 0.947 |
| 5 | Bruins vs. Penguins | 2013 | 0.946 |
| 6 | Rangers vs. Capitals | 2015 | 0.945 |
| 7 | Canadiens vs. Senators | 2015 | 0.945 |
| 8 | Blue Jackets vs. Maple Leafs | 2019 | 0.945 |
| 9 | Flyers vs. Capitals | 2016 | 0.944 |
| 10 | Kings vs. Canucks | 2012 | 0.943 |
| 11 | Wild vs. Blues | 2017 | 0.943 |
| 12 | Bruins vs. Detroit | 2014 | 0.942 |
| 13 | Canadiens vs. Rangers | 2017 | 0.940 |
| 14 | Stars vs. Golden Knights | 2020 | 0.940 |
| 15 | Blues vs. Canucks | 2009 | 0.940 |
| 16 | Blackhawks vs. Predators | 2017 | 0.940 |
| 17 | Panthers vs. Islanders | 2016 | 0.939 |
| 18 | Kings vs. Sharks | 2013 | 0.939 |
| 19 | Rangers vs. Senators | 2012 | 0.939 |
| 20 | Coyotes vs. Kings | 2012 | 0.937 |
Leading the way we have the inaugural playoff series for the NHL’s 31st franchise, followed by round two of the Battle of Florida and Jake vs. Jake (Markstrom vs. Oettinger, that is). There’s a pretty decent range of teams and years present, although there isn’t too much to glean from this chart as this is just our first round of analysis. Still, a few interesting things to note:
- The Los Angeles Kings are the only team to appear on this list four times, as well as the only team to have two series from the same playoff run, which helps explain why Jonathan Quick won the Conn Smythe in 2012. The only series they lost was the series ranked first overall.
- There are two goaltenders who played in a series on this list for two different teams. Marc-Andre Fleury did it for Pittsburgh in 2013 and Vegas in 2018 and 2020, while Roberto Luongo did it for Vancouver in 2009 and 2012, and for Florida in 2015. Fleury’s team went 1-2 in those series while Luongo’s went 0-3.
- The lengths of the series are much more spread out than one might assume. While it is true that four of the top five series were sweeps, overall the games are relatively evenly distributed with six total sweeps, six five-game series, four six-game series, and four series that went all the way to game seven.
- The vast majority of these series appear very early in the playoffs, likely a result of injuries and fatigue becoming more of a factor as teams go deeper into the postseason. Out of these twenty series, twelve of them occurred in the first round of the playoffs (thirteen if you include the Columbus vs. Toronto qualifying round series from 2020), three in round two, four in the conference finals, and none in the Stanley Cup Final.
Now let’s introduce expected goals into the fold by calculating the average expected goals value of all shots on goal, excluding empty netters. This will give us an idea of the difficulty of the shots the goaltenders faced. Theoretically, we would expect easier shots (those with a lower expected goals value) to result in higher save percentages, meaning that a high expected goals ranking would indicate that the goalies faced more difficult shots, thus making their save percentages more impressive. Let’s add expected goals to our table.
| Series | Playoff Year | Save Pct. | Save Pct. Rank | Expected Goals/Shot* | Expected Goals/Shot Rank (Out of 263) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kings vs. Golden Knights | 2018 | 0.962 | 1 | 0.0491 | 263 |
| Panthers vs. Lightning | 2022 | 0.953 | 2 | 0.0742 | 60 |
| Flames vs. Stars | 2022 | 0.952 | 3 | 0.0583 | 241 |
| Hurricanes vs. Panthers | 2023 | 0.947 | 4 | 0.0676 | 144 |
| Bruins vs. Penguins | 2013 | 0.946 | 5 | 0.0516 | 261 |
| Rangers vs. Capitals | 2015 | 0.945 | 6 | 0.0649 | 180 |
| Canadiens vs. Senators | 2015 | 0.945 | 7 | 0.0586 | 238 |
| Blue Jackets vs. Maple Leafs | 2020 | 0.945 | 8 | 0.0583 | 240 |
| Flyers vs. Capitals | 2016 | 0.944 | 9 | 0.0732 | 71 |
| Kings vs. Canucks | 2012 | 0.943 | 10 | 0.0641 | 186 |
| Wild vs. Blues | 2017 | 0.943 | 11 | 0.0583 | 242 |
| Bruins vs. Red Wings | 2014 | 0.942 | 12 | 0.0610 | 217 |
| Canadiens vs. Rangers | 2017 | 0.940 | 13 | 0.0600 | 228 |
| Stars vs. Golden Knights | 2020 | 0.940 | 14 | 0.0734 | 68 |
| Blues vs. Canucks | 2009 | 0.940 | 15 | 0.0672 | 152 |
| Blackhawks vs. Predators | 2017 | 0.940 | 16 | 0.0631 | 199 |
| Panthers vs. Islanders | 2016 | 0.939 | 17 | 0.0635 | 193 |
| Kings vs. Sharks | 2013 | 0.939 | 18 | 0.0680 | 138 |
| Rangers vs. Senators | 2012 | 0.939 | 19 | 0.0652 | 178 |
| Coyotes vs. Kings | 2012 | 0.937 | 20 | 0.0648 | 181 |
Yes, you read that correctly. In 2018, Jonathan Quick of the L.A. Kings and Marc-Andre Fleury of the Vegas Golden Knights put up the best combined save percentages of any playoff series since 2008 while also facing the weakest shots of any playoff series since 2008. In theory it makes sense, as the shots with the lowest average chance of resulting in goals would be the easiest to stop and therefore lead to the highest save percentage, but rarely does the theoretical expectation line up so perfectly with the empirical data.
The Kings vs. Golden Knights isn’t the only series that didn’t face much of a test. Nearly half of these series were in the bottom quartile of shot difficulty and only three series cracked the top half. These three, Panthers vs. Lightning in 2022, Flyers vs. Capitals in 2016, and Stars vs. Golden Knights in 2020 are also all in the top third of expected goals per shot, meaning they definitely make the cut for what we would consider “difficult” shots to go up against. I’d also throw in Hurricanes vs. Panthers and Kings vs. Sharks as potential candidates since they have the next two highest expected goals per shot amongst the top 20 (138 and 144, respectively). I’m tempted to include Kings vs. Golden Knights just because it seems crazy to not include the series with the best save percentage, but ultimately I don’t believe that a series can truly have the best goaltending if the goaltenders faced the easiest shots of the past sixteen years.
Now that we have some prime candidates, let's introduce a new metric, save percentage above expected. This is calculated by subtracting 1 from the sum of a series’ save percentage and expected goals per shot. Theoretically, a goalie should save exactly 1 minus the expected goals per shot he faces, so this new statistic will tell us how well the goalie played relative to the difficulty of the shots they faced, with a positive value indicating a goalie saved more shots and played better than expected and a negative value indicating they saved less shots and played worse than expected.
Top 20 Series by Save Percentage Above Expected
| Rank | Series | Playoff Year | Save Pct. Above Expected | Save Pct. Rank | Expected Goals/Shot Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Panthers vs. Lightning | 2022 | 0.0272 | 2 | 60 |
| 2 | Flyers vs. Capitals | 2016 | 0.0172 | 9 | 71 |
| 3 | Hurricanes vs. Panthers | 2023 | 0.0146 | 4 | 144 |
| 4 | Stars vs. Golden Knights | 2020 | 0.0134 | 14 | 68 |
| 5 | Canucks vs. Golden Knights | 2020 | 0.0128 | 27 | 32 |
| 6 | Kings vs. Golden Knights | 2018 | 0.0111 | 1 | 263 |
| 7 | Flames vs. Stars | 2022 | 0.0103 | 3 | 241 |
| 8 | Rangers vs. Capitals | 2015 | 0.0099 | 6 | 180 |
| 9 | Ducks vs. Sharks | 2009 | 0.0089 | 46 | 31 |
| 10 | Bruins vs. Maple Leafs | 2024 | 0.0082 | 42 | 39 |
| 11 | Canadiens vs. Penguins | 2020 | 0.0074 | 23 | 78 |
| 12 | Blues vs. Canucks | 2009 | 0.0072 | 15 | 152 |
| 13 | Kings vs. Canucks | 2012 | 0.0071 | 10 | 186 |
| 14 | Kings vs. Sharks | 2013 | 0.0070 | 18 | 138 |
| 15 | Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs | 2021 | 0.0068 | 29 | 65 |
| 16 | Red Wings vs. Lightning | 2016 | 0.0051 | 21 | 120 |
| 17 | Islanders vs. Penguins | 2019 | 0.0048 | 38 | 74 |
| 18 | Islanders vs. Lightning | 2021 | 0.0047 | 94 | 12 |
| 19 | Devils vs. Rangers | 2023 | 0.0046 | 69 | 36 |
| 20 | Rangers vs. Senators | 2012 | 0.0042 | 19 | 178 |
We see some familiar faces at the top, with four of our top five candidates appearing one, two, three, and four (sorry Kings vs. Sharks, you’re out) as well as the introduction of a couple new series into the mix (hello, Canucks vs. Golden Knights). What stands out immediately is the save percentage above expected for Panthers vs. Lightning. It’s the only value with a 2 in the tenths column, and the gap between it and the second place series is the same as the gap between the second place series and the twelfth place series. When we take into account that it also has the best expected goals ranking of our top four candidates, it becomes even more impressive. The goalies in this series faced tougher shots and performed better.
Right now, Panthers vs. Lightning looks to be the runaway favorite. Not only is it the only series to rank top ten in save percentage and save percentage above expected while also being in the top quartile in expected goals per shot, but its save percentage above expected is just so much better than any other series. Let’s bring in one last statistic to see if we have a winner. This time we’ll go for expected goals per goal, which is the same as expected goals per shot but only includes shots that resulted in a goal. The idea behind this is that if a goaltender is playing really well he should only get beat by the very best shots, those with the highest chance of becoming goals. Thus, a high expected goals per goal would indicate great goaltending and a low value the opposite. Ideally, we'd love for one of the top four in save percentage above expected to have a great rank in this category as well to make our decision easier, but who knows? Maybe a new series will emerge as a contender that causes us to rethink all the analysis we've done up to this point.
| Series | Playoff Year | Expected Goals/Goal | Expected Goals/Goal Rank | Save Pct. Above Expected Rank | Save Pct. Rank | Expected Goals/Shot Rank | Rankings Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panthers vs. Lightning | 2022 | 0.343 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 60 | 64 |
| Stars vs. Golden Knights | 2020 | 0.250 | 21 | 4 | 14 | 68 | 107 |
| Flyers vs. Capitals | 2016 | 0.234 | 40 | 2 | 9 | 71 | 122 |
| Hurricanes vs. Panthers | 2023 | 0.169 | 193 | 3 | 4 | 144 | 344 |
Oh. Oh wow. Not only does the Panthers vs. Lightning 2022 series rank first amongst our four finalists in expected goals per goal, it ranks first among all series. Sergei Bobrovsky and Andrei Vasilevskiy faced an array of shots in the top quartile of difficulty and put up the second-best overall save percentage, the best save percentage above expected, and only got beat by the highest quality shots of any series since 2008. If there was any doubt before, there isn’t any now. Stars vs. Golden Knights, despite having strong all-around rankings, doesn’t have the categorical dominance of Panthers vs. Lightning, and Hurricanes vs. Panthers ranks in the bottom half of two of the four metrics. And to officially eliminate Flyers vs. Capitals, here's an absolutely mind-boggling statistic.
Out of all 263 series since 2008, the Flyers vs. Capitals first-round series in the 2016 playoffs ranked dead last in average shot distance on goals, coming in at 32.5 feet per goal. No series since 2008 has had its average goal scored further from the net than this one, a statistic that doesn’t exactly support its case for the best goaltending series of this era. But why is the average shot distance so high if the series ranks in the top fifteen percent of expected goals per goal, which suggests that the goals were scored on high quality chances (presumably close to the net). Is there some massive outlier goal that would skew the data towards a crazy high average shot distance? Behold:
This goal, “scored” by Jason Chimera from 93.5 feet out, is the longest non-empty-net goal in any playoff series since 2008. If the numbers weren’t enough, Steve Mason letting in this goal should automatically disqualify it from being considered, as no series can seriously be talked about as having the best goaltending performance and also include that. All kidding aside, the craziest thing about this goal is that even though it seems like the outlier of all outliers, removing it from the dataset doesn’t actually change much. The series would still rank 261st out of 263 series. There were just a lot of really long goals let in during this series. For reference, Panthers vs. Lightning ranked 53rd in goal proximity, at right about the 80th percentile.
Now let’s dive a little deeper into our winner. In 2022 the Tampa Bay Lightning faced off in the second round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs against the Florida Panthers. Florida was fresh off a President’s Trophy campaign in the regular season and a six-game victory over the Washington Capitals in round one, and the Lightning had just finished a long, back-and-forth series with an emotional Game 7 win against the Toronto Maple Leafs. It was the second year in a row these two teams faced each other in the playoffs, with the Bolts winning the first matchup in six games en route to their second consecutive Stanley Cup.
Andrei Vasilevskiy stole the show in this series, posting a 0.981 save percentage, the second highest save percentage for a goalie who started every game of a series, behind only Tuukka Rask’s 0.985 in the 2013 Eastern Conference Final. He allowed one goal from the third period of Game 2 until the end of the series, culminating in a 49-save shutout in Game 4 to complete the sweep and send his team to the next round. It wasn’t like the Florida Panthers goaltender, two-time Vezina winner Sergei Bobrovsky, played badly. In fact he posted a respectable 0.919 save percentage, but Vasilevskiy was just on another level.
Over the course of the four-game sweep there were only 13 non-empty-net goals, 10 by the Lightning and just 3 by the Panthers. Of the 13, 8 of them were scored from inside 20 ft., indicating that if you were going to score, it was going to have to come from a high quality chance in tight. Sometimes, it would come as the result of beautiful playmaking that gets a player free around the net like this Anthony Duclair tally to open the scoring in Game 1:
Or an inexplicable defensive blunder like Mackenzie Weegar leaving the front of the net with just seconds left in a tied game:
Or a random bounce off the goalie's mask and a mid-air tap like this Pat Maroon goal from Game 4. If this is the kind of flukey play that results in the only non-empty-net goal in an elimination game, you know your goaltenders are playing insanely well.
What adds to this series even more is its historical context. Florida had just won the President’s Trophy. They played a dynamic, high octane style of offense that averaged over four goals a game in the regular season and put defense on the back burner. They tied the NHL regular season record for comeback wins, broke the regular season record for comeback wins when trailing by 3 or more goals with five, and became the third team ever to win multiple games in the same season after trailing by four or more goals. The previous team to accomplish this last feat: the 2019-2020 Florida Panthers.
None of that mattered in this series. Tampa Bay, a team that had just won two straight Stanley Cups, a team with tons of playoff experience that played a playoff style of hockey, erased any shred of offense the Panthers could muster. They held the highest-scoring offense of the 2000s to just three goals in four games. Florida got embarrassed, and this series was what made them realize the philosophical shift they needed to make if they wanted to be champions. From here, we know the story. They traded for Matthew Tkachuk, hired Paul Maurice, came so close in 2023 and finally sealed the deal in 2024 with a Stanley Cup championship. And without getting stonewalled by Andrei Vasilevskiy and the Tampa Bay Lightning in the second round of the 2022 playoffs, it may never have happened.
*Around 40 shots from the dataset were removed for the expected goals calculations due to inaccuracies with shot distance and expected goals. The series that had shots removed were BOS vs. MTL 2008, PHI vs. WSH 2008, N.J. vs. NYR 2008, DET vs. NSH 2008, COL vs. MIN 2008, MTL vs. PHI 2008, NYR vs. PIT 2008, DAL vs. S.J. 2008, DET vs. PIT 2008, DAL vs. STL 2019, CAR vs. NYI 2023, DAL vs. MIN 2023, MTL vs. OTT 2015, BUF vs. PHI 2011, ARI vs. NSH 2012, MTL vs. PIT 2010, CHI vs. NSH 2010, BOS vs. MTL 2014, N.J. vs. NYR 2008, NYR vs. PHI 2014, CAR vs. NJD 2023.